Andy,
I wish I could be as confident of the Trump implosion as you are. However, for the past eight months I have seen implosion after implosion with regards to The Donald and after each one he seems to only have gotten stronger. The pundits have been telling us for months that sooner or later the voting public would wake up and vote Trump into obscurity, but the pundits have been wrong time and time again. There is a very troubling undercurrent to Trump's success and at this point I, for one, no longer believe that an "implosion" will simply occur, and if it does occur, I certainly would not want for it to occur sometime next year. At this point, personal action may be required to assist in Trump's defeat. Such personal actions may not be successful but, at least, if asked in the future, one will have an explanation for the next generation as to what one was doing when "President Trump" came to be.
Peace,
Everett "Skip" Jenkins
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I don't think Trump will implode due to the "gaffes" that seem to drive so much media coverage (and perhaps therefore so many pundits' conclusions). I think he will implode upon some kind of "emperor has no clothes" realization, arising and snowballing at some unpredictable time. Which is basically what Romney is saying. And it's the truth. Ultimately, Trump's calling any such detractor a "loser" will start to appear automatic and false.
A short letter to the editor in today's NYTimes, apparently by a Trump sympathizer (but who knows), makes the point that the Republican establishment - which certainly holds a clear and united opinion of Trump - nevertheless "just doesn't get" what he's about.
The writer enumerates the obvious: that Trump voters have zero respect for the GOP strategy of miring the government to a standstill, in which most of the now-leading GOP candidates would persist. Trump supporters are sick of that status quo, with America's workers struggling and its conservatives getting nowhere. They want a master deal-maker to win the White House and make masterful deals on all the areas of civic debate that have paralyzed not only Obama but the Congressional majorities too.
So, sure, they want clever compromises that will get the majority legislative policies into effect. They're too frustrated and angry to be deterred from that by the rudeness and gaffes might normally change voters' minds, or by the ideological fudging that can actually achieve policy goals.
That rings true with me, as I think of blue-collar America. And the letter-writer says that "as long as" the GOP persists in its go-nowhere overall strategy and political tactics, Trump will remain the leading contender for the nomination - implying, to me, that he suggests the GOP should relent, getting flexible and practical enough to win the November election and enact its policy goals.
If and when the GOP actually does that anytime soon, I can believe Trump will be toast. Kasich and possibly Rubio could stomach that approach, and either of them could win the nomination.
- Andy
I appreciate everyone's comments, especially Bob's and Andy's.
I'm now more convinced even than yesterday (before last night's reportedly ridiculous debate, including arguing over the size of Trump's penis and whether Rubio is a little boy) that Trump will implode, whether in a week or in a year - and that the media are just making our chances worse.
Both those things are worth paying attention to! So, I will, and I invite you to consider them:
The writer enumerates the obvious: that Trump voters have zero respect for the GOP strategy of miring the government to a standstill, in which most of the now-leading GOP candidates would persist. Trump supporters are sick of that status quo, with America's workers struggling and its conservatives getting nowhere. They want a master deal-maker to win the White House and make masterful deals on all the areas of civic debate that have paralyzed not only Obama but the Congressional majorities too.
So, sure, they want clever compromises that will get the majority legislative policies into effect. They're too frustrated and angry to be deterred from that by the rudeness and gaffes might normally change voters' minds, or by the ideological fudging that can actually achieve policy goals.
But the popular media are impeding that possibility! They insist on reporting every trend as overwhelming, "projecting" long-term outcomes based on early returns, and emphasizing only the one angle on the facts that sounds most surprising or decisive. The public is simply deceived by whatever might best win "eyeballs" or sell newspapers. It's just the market doing its thing to us.
Most Americans probably now believe that Trump has an insurmountable lead in delegates, though he has only 1/5 of the number needed for nomination. Most Americans probably now think that it's only a matter of time before Kasich drops out, though he's now doing better than Jimmy Carter was doing at this point in 1976. Most people are probably actually convinced that Cruz demolished Rubio on Super Tuesday, though Cruz outpolled Rubio in only about half of the contests, and where Rubio beat Cruz it was almost always by at least 8 percentage points while only in his home state did Cruz beat Rubio by that much.
If Ohio and California were in Super Tuesday instead of Virginia and Georgia, the results for Trump, Cruz and Rubio would be very different now ... and those very different results are what we ought to be expecting when the remaining states actually vote, rather than any foregone polling or "momentum" conclusion attributable to the accident or manipulation in the voting calendar. Trump may have "won" Vermont, but Kasich won just as many delegates as Trump there. Cruz may have won only three states compared to Trump's six, but his delegate haul in those three alone is more than triple the number Trump won in any state.
Most Americans probably now believe that Trump has an insurmountable lead in delegates, though he has only 1/5 of the number needed for nomination. Most Americans probably now think that it's only a matter of time before Kasich drops out, though he's now doing better than Jimmy Carter was doing at this point in 1976. Most people are probably actually convinced that Cruz demolished Rubio on Super Tuesday, though Cruz outpolled Rubio in only about half of the contests, and where Rubio beat Cruz it was almost always by at least 8 percentage points while only in his home state did Cruz beat Rubio by that much.
If Ohio and California were in Super Tuesday instead of Virginia and Georgia, the results for Trump, Cruz and Rubio would be very different now ... and those very different results are what we ought to be expecting when the remaining states actually vote, rather than any foregone polling or "momentum" conclusion attributable to the accident or manipulation in the voting calendar. Trump may have "won" Vermont, but Kasich won just as many delegates as Trump there. Cruz may have won only three states compared to Trump's six, but his delegate haul in those three alone is more than triple the number Trump won in any state.
So I urge people to do their own thinking, even though every day we are fed debate shenanigans and mindless statistical extrapolations as the only things worth getting excited about.
My only regret is that the media misleads could cost America the chance to elect a sane president.
- Andy
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